Beijing talks unlikely to pay dividends immediately
When Barack Obama said in Tokyo on Saturday that the world was at “one of those rare inflection points in history”, he was referring to the global economy. But the US president could just as well have been describing international politics.
Air Force One touched down in Shanghai last night to start Mr Obama’s first visit to China at a time when America’s position as global top dog is widely viewed to be in long-term decline.
Mr Obama, who moves on to Beijing tonight for two days of talks with the Chinese leadership, has made clear that he views China’s rise as a potentially positive development. His remarks in Tokyo were an emollient contrast to George W. Bush’s description of China as a “strategic competitor”.
Yet if Mr Obama’s visit to the largest US creditor appears to symbolise a shift in the global balance of power, China’s rising international influence will be tempered by a reluctance to play a larger leadership role.
While the US president will use his meetings to try to engage Beijing as a global partner in tackling the biggest problems facing the world – from climate change to global economic imbalances and nuclear weapons proliferation – he will probably find his hosts have a more cautious view of their new-found prominence.
In a speech that provided the fullest account so far of the US president’s approach to China, Mr Obama made clear in Tokyo that the US would not try to contain China, saying the country was not a threat.
“The rise of a strong, prosperous China can be a source of strength for the community of nations,” Mr Obama said.
“I know there are many who question how the United States perceives China’s emergence. But . . . in an inter-connected world, power does not need to be a zero-sum game, and nations need not fear the success of another. Cultivating spheres of co-operation – not competing spheres of influence – will lead to progress in the Asia-Pacific.”
The accommodating tone of the speech will have been welcomed in Beijing, where senior leaders are flattered by the global attention they are now receiving. Their confidence has also been boosted by the country’s rapid recovery from the global economic crisis.
Yet even US officials do not expect Mr Obama’s efforts to engage China to pay immediate dividends.
“This is not a trip about deliverables,” says Drew Thompson, head of China studies at the Nixon Center in Washington, referring to the diplomatic jargon for concrete announcements. “It is about building a relationship, about staying the course and a chance for President Obama to get a sense of the place.”
Even before he arrived in China, Mr Obama found himself sparring with President Hu Jintao over the reference to foreign exchange policies in the final declaration at the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, an indication that Beijing will give little ground on the currency issue during the visit. Mr Obama is also likely to face tough questioning on trade, following measures Washington has taken against Chinese imports in recent weeks.
The US president will urge China to become more involved in Afghanistan and to take a harder line against the regimes in North Korea and Iran over their nuclear programmes. But Chinese officials and academics see few signs that Beijing will be willing to make big commitments on these issues.
“The US wants China to do something on most issues, but China can deliver much less than the US expects,” says Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.
Mr Obama will also face pressure from the Chinese over US arms sales to Taiwan and over his approach to Tibet. And with the Chinese authorities detaining or placing under surveillance dozens of dissidents in the run-up to the visit, he will face the delicate task of talking about human rights in a way that neither offends his hosts nor comes across as weak.
“The US will never waver in speaking up for the fundamental values that we hold dear – and that includes respect for the religion and cultures of all people,” Mr Obama said in Tokyo. “But we can move these discussions forward in a spirit of partnership rather than rancour.” He will be hoping so.
»» Beijing talks unlikely to pay dividends immediately for Under The Same Blue Sky Original，
»»Please specify from the reprint: http://blog.12306.com/archives/800
